牛市与熊市：长期投资者真正需要了解的

牛市是指价格持续上涨的时期，通常定义为较近期低点上涨20%或更多。熊市则相反：价格持续下跌20%或更多。这些周期是金融市场的基本特征，只要市场存在，它们就会持续下去。

For 长期投资者, the most important thing to understand about market cycles is that both are temporary. Bull markets do not last forever, and neither do bear markets. The 投资者 who build the most wealth are those who maintain their strategy through both, rather than chasing the highs or fleeing the lows.

了解这些周期背后的驱动���素可以帮助你保持必要的自律，从而在两个阶段都保持投入。

Bull markets are driven by expanding economic activity, rising corporate earnings, low interest rates, and 投资者 optimism. They tend to last longer than bear markets: the average bull market runs for about four to five years, while the average bear market lasts roughly one year.

熊市的触发因素包括经济衰退、利率上升、地缘政治冲击或投机泡沫破裂。熊市持续时间较短，但跌幅更大，价格迅速下跌。正是这种快速下跌给市场带来的心理冲击，以及由此引发的恐慌性抛售。

The asymmetry between bull and bear markets is critical for 长期投资者. Because bull markets are longer and more powerful than bear markets, staying invested through both produces positive returns over virtually every long-term period in market history.

During bull markets, 投资者 become overconfident. They increase their risk exposure, abandon 多元化 to concentrate in whatever is performing best, and begin to believe they have special insight into the market. This concentration creates vulnerability for the inevitable downturn.

During bear markets, 投资者 panic. They sell at depressed prices, move to cash, and wait for clear signals of recovery before reinvesting. The problem is that recovery signals are only visible in hindsight. The strongest recoveries begin when sentiment is at its worst, which means waiting for clarity guarantees missing the rebound.

共同点在于，人们对市场状况的情绪反应会导致相同的结果：牛市时高买低卖。而这与获得良好回报的方式恰恰相反。

The most effective approach to market cycles is to have a plan that does not change based on whether the market is rising or falling. Maintain your target 配置, 再平衡 on schedule, and resist the urge to adjust your strategy based on recent market performance.

Automated 投资组合管理 makes this discipline achievable by removing the human element from the execution. Your 配置 stays on target through bull and bear markets alike, which is precisely the behavior that produces the best long-term results.